Impact of Communicable Diseases on Some Economies in Africa in the Presence of Inflation: A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of communicable diseases on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in selected African countries, with a focus on the role of inflation. Using a panel data set of eight countries over the period 2003 –2022, we estimated a pooled regression, fixed effect model and random effect model. The result showed that as prevalence of HIV and malaria increases, the economic performance of the countries decreases in the presence of inflation. Conversely, the decrease in the prevalence of HIV and malaria leads to corresponding improvement in the economic performance of some economies in Africa. Also, adults living with HIV had a statistically negative impact on GDP. This implied that a decrease in the number of adults living with HIV improved the GDP of the economies in Africa. It was recommended that in modeling the impact of communicable diseases on some economies in Africa in the presence of inflation, the random effect model is adequate. The study concluded that health expenditure played a vital role in fostering economic growth, while diseases like HIV and malaria could hinder it. The results further suggested that the impact of inflation on GDP may depend on country-specific conditions. Findings of study were observed to have important implications for policy makers in African countries, highlighting the need to invest in health care infrastructure, and diseases prevention programs, as well as implement policies to control inflation.